Ecological Footprint and Human Development Index 2016
The goal of this data analysis is to study the relationship between the ecological footprint (EF) and the Human Development Index (HDI) of countries worldwide using the latest data available which dates from 2016 (as of October 2020).
The EF measures the surface area needed to provide the resources necessary to meet consumer demand in any given country. This includes the surface area used for food crops, fiber production, timber regeneration, absorption of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning, and built infrastructure. Imports and exports are taken into account. Further details can be found here. This indicator is provided by the Global Footprint Network (GFN), a non-profit organization whose mission is to help end ecological overshoot by making ecological limits central to decision-making.
The HDI measures the level of development of a country by combining indices that assess three key dimensions: health, education and standard of living. Health is assessed by life expectancy at birth, education is measured by mean of years of schooling for adults aged 25 years and more and expected years of schooling for children of school entering age. Standard of living is measured by gross national income per capita. Further details can be found here. The HDI is calculated by the United Nations Development Programme using data from various sources.
This notebook presents the entire data analysis process starting with the extraction of the raw data from online sources, followed by data preparation operations and finishing with a few descriptive graphs, the one of key interest being the scatterplot showing the relationship betweenship ecological footprint and the HDI for countries worldwide.
The data concerning both the EF and the HDI can be accessed on the GFN website as an excel file containing all the data, as individual datasets through the Ecological Footprint Explorer open data platform or through the website's API for which an API key must be requested using their API Key Request Form to be able to access the data. The data is provided by the GFN under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
For this data analysis, the data will be imported through the API as it makes the whole process easier to reproduce and requires fewer files.
Different datasets can be accessed through the API, the types dataset lists all the indicators that are available.
For this data analysis, these three variables will be extracted: Earths, Population and Human Development Index. Earths measures how many Earths would be required to provide the surface required to meet consumption needs if everyone on the planet were to consume at the same level as the given country.
The HDI can also be accessed through the API of the United Nations Human Development Report Office where the data may be slightly more up to date as it is recalculated retroactively each year with the integration of new methodologies and updated data.
The record column shows that the values of three variables of interest are contained on different lines of the value column. Country names and the ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 country codes are also needed for merging with other datasets later on.
The record column needs to be split into separate columns containing the variables of interest and the columns can be renamed for better readability.
The dataset contains data on 187 countries, of which 12 are missing a value for the HDI (shown in a later section).
We can now look at how Earths and HDI are distributed.
The list contains mainly fossil fuel producing countries with the exceptions of Luxembourg and Bermuda. As a wealthy country, Luxembourg has a high per capita consumption level and it also experiences a high level of tank tourism. Bermuda also is a wealthy country with a high per capita consumption level and it additionaly relies heavily on fossil fuels for all its energy needs.
To get a better understanding of how much of the world is covered in the dataset, we can compare the countries listed in the dataset to a comprehensive list of countries considered to be independent States.
A list of independent States will be used as reference to better understand the coverage of the available data, with the assumption that countries or territories that are not independent are small in size and therefore have less impact on the global consumption of resources.
The list of Independent States in the World published by the United States Department of State (USDS) will be used as reference. It includes GENC country codes which are based on the ISO 3166 country code standard and will be used to merge with the other dataset. This data is in the public domain and may be copied and distributed without permission.
The USDS allows scraping of its website but for some reason the pandas function pd.read_html(url) does not work on this page so the BeautifulSoup package is used here instead.
There are 195 independent States according to the USDS.
This sample of the table shows that country names contain extra characters and notes which can be removed for better readability.
The following cell displays the independent States not included in the EF dataset.
It is also interesting to see which are the 10 out of the 187 countries listed in the EF dataset that are not independent.
10 dependent territories are included in the EF dataset with a computed ecological footprint. As they are not independent states they have not been included in the HDI, along with North Korea and Somalia, as shown in the table below.
Now that we better understand the coverage of the dataset, it would be interesting to include information about the region to which each country belongs as it would provide a better overview of the geographical distribution of the scores of both indicators.
This information can be obtained from different places. A list built by GitHub user lukes last updated on 19 March 2019 will be imported here. This list has been obtained by merging two sources, the Wikipedia ISO 3166-1 article table containing the alpha and numeric country codes, and the United Nations Statistics Division table containing regional, and sub-regional names and codes. The information on regions may also be obtained by downloading a CSV or Excel file from the United Nations Statistics Division page.
The merging appears to be successful as all countries and territories have an attributed continent.
Now that the dataset is ready for further analysis, it is time to look at the distribution of the country scores for the EF and HDI grouped by continent and to visualize the relationship between these two variables.
The dashed line represents the one planet limit. The boxplots are drawn with whiskers that reach out to farthest data point within the interval contained by the 5th and 95th percentiles. Countries from both Europe and Oceania are all consuming in excess of Earth's resources, as well as nearly all of North and South American countries with a few exceptions:
Many Asian and African countries appear to be within the planet's limits. These can be identified in the scatterplot further below.
African countries are very frugal in their consumption, very few exceed the 2 Earths mark:
Asian countries on the other hand show a very wide distribution in resource consumption. Their EF ranges from 0.3 Earth equivalents up to 8.8 with a median of 1.3:
The HDI scores are widely spread within each continent and a few countries stand out as high-performers while some others lag behind the rest. These outliers are the following:
The horizontal dashed line marks the one planet limit. The vertical dashed line marks the median HDI. Nearly all countries consuming resources within Earth's total biocapacity score low on the HDI. The only exception is Sri Lanka which has an HDI score of 0.77 while maintaining consumption at a sustainable level. It is followed by Jamaica with an HDI score of 0.73 just below the median HDI. All other countries in the the top half of HDI scores are consuming resources at an unsustainable level.
The duty of policy-makers and other development stakeholders is to shift countries to the bottom-right quadrant. This means that those in high-consumption countries must put in place policies to decrease resource use, while those in low-consumption countries must find alternative ways to increase health, education and standard of living, as they cannot follow the development path of high-consumption countries.
In facing these challenges, it can be interesting to look more closely at which countries are the most efficient in resource consumption relative to their HDI score. Knowing which countries are most resource-efficient per HDI point may bring to light successful policies that may serve as examples for others. The development efficiency indicator is computed in the next section to identify those countries.
Among the top 10 countries in terms of development efficiency, none are even close to the median HDI, only Timor-Leste and Tajikistan make it above the 0.6 mark. To get a list of potential standard-setters, we can further refine the list by setting a minimum HDI.
As observed in the scatterplot, only Sri Lanka and Jamaica are within the one planet limit, with a near-median HDI. Uruguay stands out as the only country reaching the 0.8 HDI mark. Albania makes it in the list as the only European country and, along with the last three countries in the list, it is considered as an economy in transition by the United Nations country classification in the World Economic Situation and Prospects report from 2019. The other 6 countries are considered to be developing economies.
Each of these countries would have to be studied further to better understand how they score so high on the HDI in such a resource-efficient manner. Some of them may have policies in place that could serve as examples of good practice for other countries facing similar challenges.
Finally, we can have a look at what countries are the least resource efficient relative to the HDI:
These are mainly fossil fuel producing countries with the exception of Luxembourg. These countries would have to be investigated further to better understand why they make it into this list.
This analysis has shed some light on the situation of countries regarding their ecological footprint and their level of development. Sri Lanka stands out as being the only country with a sustainable level resource consumption while achieving an above-median score on the HDI. None of the countries among what are considered as developed economies according to the United Nations are even close to the one planet limit, most are well above the 2 Earths mark, with the exception of Romania.
This goes to show that all countries still have a lot of work to do in order to achieve a sustainable level of development on both social and environmental issues. As the UN Sustainable Development Goals are becoming the new benchmark for assessing the level of development of countries, one could question the use of the classification 'developed', 'in transition', and 'developing', as the scores on the ecological footprint clearly show that the so-called developed countries still have a way to go in order to achieve a sustainable level of consumption while maintaining a high standard of living.